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Dollsworth · #1 (**Link to Post**) 27-Jun-2009, 09:44

Another moisture plume advects northwards out of NW France on Sunday evening, moving northwards overnight across West Country/CS England/E Wales/Mids. Nothing will come of it yet, but daytime heating to 30C in some parts will destabilise the airmass and thunderstorms are then expected from the M4 northwards across the Midlands, Northern England and into southern Scotland on Monday afternoon. Wales/E Anglia, S England, most of Scotland & N Ireland likely to miss out. Storms lasting until late evening for some.

Second moisture plume then advects northwards out of NW France yet again on Monday night, destabilising on Tuesday due to daytime heating. Areas at risk of storms on Tuesday afternoon and evening are almost the same as those on Monday, with also the inclusion of Wales, southwest England, and perhaps a little more of southern Scotland and maybe Northern Ireland. Things may change but the signs are there, we need to look for trends.

Wednesday could be the day for very big storms - one to watch.

Stourbridge Weather · #2 (**Link to Post**) 27-Jun-2009, 09:56

This coming week looks awesome!!! We know the GFS often seems to undercook temperatures by 2-3c sometimes so next week i wouldnt rule out the small chance of getting 34c!

Storm risk looks absoloutley stunning too!

I feel after this summer we will have to wait until 2012 for the next good one though.

2003- Hot
2006- Hot
2009- Hot (probably)
2012- Following the trend?

Poyks · #3 (**Link to Post**) 27-Jun-2009, 10:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stourbridge Weather

Storm risk looks absoloutley stunning too!

Now that's music to my ears!

Looking forward to it!

Thunderstorm · #4 (**Link to Post**) 27-Jun-2009, 10:34

This is the sort of thing we want to see

thebullet · #5 (**Link to Post**) 27-Jun-2009, 10:53

Thats brilliant!

What about this one?

YouTube - Non Stop Lightning ( Arizona )

Mitch69 · #6 (**Link to Post**) 27-Jun-2009, 11:11

Disappointed that we missed out yesterday, looking forward to next weeks potential as well.
Dollsworths prediction for Wednesday is distressing as in meetings allday. And will have one eye on whats happening outside the window and not concentratin on the interview !

Dollsworth · #7 (**Link to Post**) 27-Jun-2009, 12:25

From the MetO further outlook:

Quote:

The weather will remain hot and humid on Thursday and Friday, possibly becoming very hot in inland central and southeastern England. Heavy showers and thunderstorms, becoming severe in places, are expected to develop in western and central areas on Thursday, moving into eastern parts on Friday. The risk of showers or thunderstorms remains across much of the UK throughout the weekend and it will become windy at times, especially in the north and west.

Poyks · #8 (**Link to Post**) 27-Jun-2009, 12:40

Just watched the BBC weather, and excited to see the weather warnings for this area this afternoon and evening!
Our band is playing at the Jolly Brewer in Lincoln outdoors tonight, so it'd be nice to have a bit of an extra light show from above!

buckslad28 · #9 (**Link to Post**) 27-Jun-2009, 13:51

Yep the total set up looks really good for next week, Fax chart for Wednesday shows what i would describe a heightened risk. Thursday and Friday show really strong signs for thunderstorms and looking at the latest run the signs are all very good.

We need to expect a few runs downgrading the potential, thats just normal, and I would expect at least 2 runs to show negative signs over the next few days, they often do in this scenario. So don't be disappointed if this happens the risk very much remains.

If I had to choose 2 days this coming week it would be Thursday & Friday

michaelfish-not · #10 (**Link to Post**) 27-Jun-2009, 20:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by buckslad28

Yep the total set up looks really good for next week, Fax chart for Wednesday shows what i would describe a heightened risk. Thursday and Friday show really strong signs for thunderstorms and looking at the latest run the signs are all very good.

We need to expect a few runs downgrading the potential, thats just normal, and I would expect at least 2 runs to show negative signs over the next few days, they often do in this scenario. So don't be disappointed if this happens the risk very much remains.

If I had to choose 2 days this coming week it would be Thursday & Friday

Yes, I would agree. On Thursday, there is a forecast of CAPE above 2000j/kg for Gloucestershire and Oxfordshire. Then on Friday, CAPE of about 2600j/kg is expected around the Peterborough area. Could be interesting if the forecast doesn't change by then (which it probably will).

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The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Dollsworth For This Useful Post:
Mitch69 (27-Jun-2009), Poyks (27-Jun-2009), Stourbridge Weather (27-Jun-2009), Thunderstorm (27-Jun-2009)

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Dollsworth (27-Jun-2009), Poyks (27-Jun-2009)

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