Please use this thread to discuss Thunderstorm activity from Saturday 23rd August to 29th August 2008 inclusive.

Thanks

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Been a while since i last did a charts analysis...

Today we have a cold front moving in from the west, preceeded by a warm front. Now the warm front is starting to move eastwards across Ireland as i type - this will introduce slightly warmer and moist air. The main focus here is actually the cold front because as it moves into the moist air there may be some embedded thundery activity across Ireland later this afternoon/evening, moving west to east. The cold front will be moving quicker than the warm front (which is normal) and where the two have already met will form an occlusion, this seems most likely from NW England up to W Scotland. South of this, as the cold front gets closer to the warm front, the moist air will be forced upwards which may give some embedded activity to Devon, Cornwall, west Wales and perhaps NW England around midnight.
After this time the cold and warm front will merge into an occlusion and the potential for thundery rain decreases as it continues pushing eastwards during the early hours of Sunday. There is a chance for a funnel or spout, but tornadoes seem unlikely.

Tomorrow the CAPE is weak so it doesn't seem likely for any storms. There will be a few scattered showers dotted around almost anywhere, but these should be light-moderate. Isobars are fairly tight suggesting quite breezy conditions.

A warm and cold front then arrive from the northwest overnight, brining drizzly patchy rain to western areas, this turning more persistent later as the cold front moves through. This looks like mainly dynamic rainfall, it doesn't seem likely to be thundery. I'm more concerned about the wind, very strong and gusty with GALES likely in the northwest.
The warm front crosses all of the UK by midday Tuesday, but the cold front stretches the whole length of the Atlantic to the USA. This means a band a of heavy rain for northern England, north Wales and yes you've guessed it, possibly Northern Ireland and Southern Scotland for a time and this isn't good news given the current flooding problems and saturated ground.

Now the outlook for Wednesday shows signs of HIGH pressure sitting over the continent, which will very slowly nudge the weather front northwards, as it does so the winds will lighten a touch. There will be a struggle though, as to whether the HIGH pressure will win or if the LOW will push back in. One we'll have to watch...

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Yes, it seems the weather is starting to settle down at last.
I certainly hope so - i am on holiay in Brighton for a week starting 2nd September so the weather had better behave itself.

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Sferics in Cornwall on the ADT lightning detector:

ATD Sferics lightning during past 24 hours

Attached Thumbnails

 

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There is very little chance of activity this coming week. There may be a few isolated rumbles today in a few showers but nothing else.

Going to be a quiet week (at last!) or is that bad news for MWF

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means it will be ultra-quiet this week I'm afraid

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A relatively storm free week it seems...

Today most of the UK is sandwiched in between a cold front and warm front. The warm front has brought a band of cloud and at times some drizzle and is currently over eastern areas. The cold front lies over southern Scotland and Northern Ireland at the moment, bringing some moderate to heavy rain. In between the air is slightly more humid but there are some good breaks over the Midlands.
Behind the cold front a trough is bringing quite a few heavy showers to western Scotland.

It seems the greatest threat today is of a spout/funnel cloud sighting, most likely in northern areas.

Overnight the cold front lingers across Northern England, Northern Ireland and the North Midlands, but fizzles out and remains as a band of cloud with some occasional drizzle. To the south it stays humid.

A wave is expected to develop on the front which will bring an area of heavier rain across Northern Ireland during the early morning (after dawn), moving into Northern England as the morning wears on. This will turn lighter and more showery, but will persist on and off for much of the afternoon in these regions, and may even extend into southern Scotland.
The rain turns heavier during the evening, but gradually clears and dies out overnight. To the south it stays humid and rather cloudy.

The front, still sitting across N Ireland, N England & S Scotland weakens further during Weds as HIGH pressure tries to build from the south. We may see a few more breaks in the cloud over SE England and where this happens, in the humid airmass, temps could climb to 23 or even 24C. A rather cloudy day is expected though, with another pulse of heavy rain working into western and southern Scotland during the evening and overnight. Finally the weather front shows signs of moving slowly north as the HIGH takes hold in the south.

For Thursday the front however remains across Scotland and so scattered light showers are expected here. Still quite humid in the south as warm air starts moving up from the continent, 25C is possible in any cloud breaks.

Even hotter in the south on Friday, temps likely to reach 25/26C. Still one or two showers in Scotland and possibly an afternoon thundery shower across Northern Ireland.
By Saturday, with temps in the high 20's, we may see an area of thundery rain move up from the southwest, and ahead of it some storms may develop over Northern England. Obviously a long way off yet and it may change, but it's a possibility

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It still looks like a breakdown some way or another to end the week, details are still sketchy though, but you might just see something Unregistered - you never know!

In fact even up to midday Friday, there is nothing to suggest any possible storms across the UK sadly. We have a problem, the humidity is high, and therefore a very large amount of cloud which will struggle to shift. However, the warm air will be arriving from the continent making it feel quite oppresive by the end of the week. The HIGH pressure to the south has hardly any winds associated with it = nothing to break or blow the cloud away The last runs overdid Friday's high temps as the cloud cover is likely to be more than anticipated, most likely 25/26C and a little warmer still by Saturday. However by the end of Saturday afternoon and into the evening we might see some storms developing over high ground (where conditions will be most favourable), therefore most likely over Wales/N England.

Another interesting setup is suggested overnight and into Sunday. Thunderstorms or thundery rain moves north during Sunday (from midnight), pushing up from the Channel. Then as we go into next week it seems LOW's will work back in and the threat for thundery showers remains...

Now there are several days yet and this can easily change...

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Just noticed the Met Office agrees with my previous post in a way...

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Thanks for the updates, fingers crossed for the weekend.

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