Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 10 May 2008 06:00 to Sun 11 May 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 10 May 2008 06:45
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Upper block pattern persists across Europe ... with feature of main interest being the intensifying cut-off cyclone over the Iberian Peninsula which will make slow eastward progress on Saturday. Another upper cut-off low is present over eastern Europe, which exhibits smaller-scale vort maxima at its periphery, which are expected to affect the Belarus region late on Saturday. At low levels ... weak cyclonic circulation is accompanying the Iberian upper low, maintaining north- and eastward advection of a weak Saharan EML plume into the southern Mediterranean regions. Otherwise, SFC conditions over Europe are rather quiescent.

DISCUSSION

There will be numerous foci for mainly diurnally-driven deep convection over Europe, but shear and thermodynamic fields suggest that organized severe threat will be rather low with this activity.
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Storm Forecast Issued: Sat 2008-05-10 9:26
Valid: 2008-05-10 09:26:00 - 2008-05-11 00:00:00

Regions Affected
Northern Ireland, much of Scotland

Synopsis
Thunderstorms overnight across Wales have been slowly moving across the Irish Sea towards the Isle of Man and now heading towards Nothern Ireland. They could still be quite heavy with some hail possible. Further showers are expected to develop across inland Scotland, which could be heavy and thundery and these are expected to continue well into the night. An isolated sharp shower or thunderstorm is possible elsewhere, but they will be extremely well scattered and most places will remain warm and dry.
All times are GMT+1
You can view this forecast here.

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Storm Update Issued: Sat 2008-05-10 16:26
Valid: 2008-05-10 16:26:00 - 2008-05-11 00:00:00

Regions Affected
East Midlands, North Midlands, Northeast England, Northwest England, southern, central & eastern Scotland, parts of western Scotland

Synopsis
Thunderstorms have been slowly developing inland across parts of Scotland, and are expected to continue for the next few hours during the remainder of the evening, and some may continue overnight. Elsewhere, well scattered thunderstorms have been breaking out and a few more may do so for the remainder of the evening, although most will die down after sunset.

All times are GMT+1
You can view this forecast here.

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Looking forward to tomorrow afternoon and evening, I would say that convection would be most likely around Wales, Scotland and the Midlands. Predicted levels for tomorrow are relatively high. I'll keep an eye on it and report back. I will post a CAPE Forecast for tomorrow, tonight.

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Looks like i will have to wait longer again to see my first storm. Dosnt look like this year is my year at all.

What direction are these showers heading in in the South. If NW then great if not then i m not surprised.

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My prediction is that the storms with blow up from the South-East to the North-West, flirting with the Welsh Border, before swinging North-East across Cumbria and Dumfries and into Central Scotland.

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Early in the season yet SW - know the feeling! You will miss a few then probably get the best storm ever in a few weeks, or even today! The mean direction seems to be north-north west, all is not lost

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