Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 09 May 2008 06:00 to Sat 10 May 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 08 May 2008 19:40
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

A strong ridge over central Europe is framed by a well evolved trough over SW Europe and a broad trough over eastern Europe. Weak pressure differences are present resulting in a broad area of thunderstorm probabilities over most parts of Europe.

DISCUSSION

... UK and parts of Scotland ...

A stalling frontal boundary is the focus for scattered to widespread convective initiation from S - UK to Scotland.
Yesterday ( 17Z ) surface data behind the slowly NNE - ward shifting cold front revealed a plume of a notedly more humid airmass with dewpoints between 10 and 15 °C over far NW France / extreme SW UK spreading NE - wards. This airmass overspreads the forecast area during the night hours and will reach far northern Scotland at Friday, 06Z. As high pressure east of UK strengthens during the day, a somewhat warmer airmass approaches UK from the SSE wich should weaken mainly mid-level lapse rates a little bit. However, moist BL should offset those weakening lapse rates. Some diabatic heating will help to overcome weak cap at lower levels and numerous showers / thunderstorms will develop. A combination of low LCLs and enhanced 0-3km CAPE release favors a few funnel / short lived tornado reports over the area of interest beside small hail and strong wind gusts and a low - end level - 1 area was issued.
There is a distinct risk of significant rain amounts as storms should cluster betimes. A moist BL and slow storm motion all point to an enhanced flash flood risk mainly over central / N - UK and Scotland . This threat is not included in our risk scheme.

GFS hints at a short wave which approaches S - UK from the south around 18Z , moving rapidly northwards. This forcing supports thunderstorm re -/ development during the night hours mainly over N - UK and Scotland while activity rapidly diminishes over S - UK after 18Z - 21Z.

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Storm Forecast Issued: Fri 2008-05-09 0:00
Valid: 2008-05-09 00:00:00 - 2008-05-10 00:00:00

Regions Affected
Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northwest England, Wales, West Midlands, Southwest England, Central Southern England and parts of East Midlands and Northeast England

Synopsis
A weakening front will try to push in from the west during Friday, but HIGH pressure to the east will prevent it from moving too far east. Therefore western areas will be rather cloudy, misty with hill and coastal fog and showers at times, and during the afternoon some of the showers could turn heavy with a risk of thunder. There is the potential for widespread heavy and thundery showers, but the forecast remains quite sketchy at the moment so an update may be issued during Friday. At the moment it is expected that the showers will die away during the evening and clear westwards, but it is worth checking the forecast during Friday for further updates if issued.

All times are GMT+1.
You can view this forecast here.

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Forecast Update Issued: Fri 2008-05-09 18:32
Valid: 2008-05-09 18:32:00 - 2008-05-09 22:00:00

Regions Affected
Central Southern England, South Midlands

Synopsis
Thunderstorms have already developed over southern and central England and are expected to continue for the next few hours. A couple more may move from France over the English Channel. These will be slow moving, with lightning and hail possible, and perhaps a weak tornado. Some local flooding is also possible. Most showers should die away later this evening but a few heavy and perhaps thundery showers are possible over southwest England and Wales later in the night - this goes beyond this forecast period and will be monitored during this evening.

All times are GMT+1.
You can view this forecast here.

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looking at the radar - looks like Birmingham is right in the firing line - in about 30 - 45 Min's at my estimation

Brett

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Storm Update Issued: Fri 2008-05-09 22:30
Valid: 2008-05-09 22:30:00 - 2008-05-10 03:00:00

Regions Affected
West Midlands, South Midlands, South Wales, East Wales, parts of Southwest England

Synopsis
Thunderstorms have been developing through much of the evening across southern and central England, and more recently in south Wales. These are expected to continue for the next few hours, and perhaps a few more may develop elsewhere, but most likely in the west. Flash flooding may become a problem from torrential rain in slow-moving storms, and some may have some large hail. Locally as much as 30mm or more may fall in 3 hours. Further updates may be issued.
All times are GMT+1
You can view this forecast here.

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