000
WTPZ44 KNHC 300828
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2007

AN AMSU PASS AT 0520Z HELPED ESTABLISH THE LOCATION AND MOTION OF
JULIET...WHICH ARE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
AND 329/9...RESPECTIVELY. THE CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER EASTERLY SHEAR
THAT HAS PREVENTED IT FROM BECOMING APPRECIABLY BETTER ORGANIZED.
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 45
KT...A QUIKSCAT EDGE PASS AT 02Z DID NOT SUPPORT WINDS THAT HIGH.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

JULIET IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. AS LONG AS JULIET MAINTAINS DEEP
CONVECTION...IT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IN ANOTHER
36 HOURS OR SO...HOWEVER...JULIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER
WATERS AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH. AT THAT TIME...MOST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWS THE FORWARD MOTION DRAMATICALLY IN THE
LOW-LEVEL STRATO-CU FILLED NORTHERLIES WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH STILL ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.

EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEASTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY
OF SO...AND A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THIS PERIOD IS POSSIBLE.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HOWEVER...COOLER WATERS ARE LESS THAN TWO DAYS
AWAY...AT WHICH TIME THE COMBINATION OF THE COOLER WATER AND SHEAR
SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID DEGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 17.6N 112.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 19.0N 113.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 20.9N 114.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 22.4N 114.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 23.0N 115.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 23.0N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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00
WTPZ44 KNHC 012042
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007
200 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2007

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW
COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF A SHRINKING AND WEAKENING AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED
AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION TO A
REMNANT LOW ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS. IF JULIETTE DOES NOT
GENERATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS IT COULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/8. JULIETTE HAS NOT DECELERATED IN ITS
FORWARD MOTION YET...HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOON AS THE
CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THIS CONTINUED
PACE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.7N 115.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 23.7N 115.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 24.4N 116.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 24.7N 116.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 03/1800Z 25.1N 116.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

__________________

000
Wtpz24 Knhc 020235
Tcmep4
Tropical Depression Juliette Forecast/advisory Number 12
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Ep142007
0300 Utc Tue Oct 02 2007

Tropical Depression Center Located Near 23.4n 115.8w At 02/0300z
Position Accurate Within 20 Nm

Present Movement Toward The North-northwest Or 340 Degrees At 8 Kt

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure 1006 Mb
Max Sustained Winds 25 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt.
Winds And Seas Vary Greatly In Each Quadrant. Radii In Nautical
Miles Are The Largest Radii Expected Anywhere In That Quadrant.

Repeat...center Located Near 23.4n 115.8w At 02/0300z
At 02/0000z Center Was Located Near 23.1n 115.7w

Forecast Valid 02/1200z 23.9n 116.0w...remnant Low
Max Wind 20 Kt...gusts 25 Kt.

Forecast Valid 03/0000z 24.3n 116.1w...remnant Low
Max Wind 20 Kt...gusts 25 Kt.

Forecast Valid 03/1200z 24.6n 116.2w...remnant Low
Max Wind 20 Kt...gusts 25 Kt.

Forecast Valid 04/0000z...dissipated

Request For 3 Hourly Ship Reports Within 300 Miles Of 23.4n 115.8w

This Is The Last Forecast/advisory Issued By The National Hurricane
Center On This System

$$
Forecaster Knabb

__________________