000
WTNT32 KNHC 250231
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1100 PM AST MON SEP 24 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1700 MILES...2735 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...10.1 N...36.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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000
WTNT32 KNHC 250831
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 AM AST TUE SEP 25 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KAREN...NO
IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND AREAS...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1565 MILES...2520 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...10.4 N...38.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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000
WTNT32 KNHC 251432
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 25 2007

...KAREN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1515
MILES...2440 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...10.8 N...38.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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000
WTNT32 KNHC 252032
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2007

...KAREN CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
SO FAR...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1430
MILES...2305 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...11.1 N...39.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

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Interesting northely track on that one - any ideas why?

__________________

We are in pretty high pressure along the eastern seaboard...we have been for about 3 weeks. It also may be the trough of very warm water along the 'canyon, I dont think it built up enough strength quickly enough to hit the coast.

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000
WTNT32 KNHC 272033
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM AST THU SEP 27 2007

...KAREN WEAKENING SOME...STILL A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST OR ABOUT 845
MILES...1360 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KAREN IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.3 N...48.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

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00
WTNT32 KNHC 282031
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2007

...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.9 WEST OR ABOUT 780
MILES...1250 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...16.4 N...49.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

__________________

000
WTNT32 KNHC 290231
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2007

...CENTER OF KAREN RE-LOCATED...STORM EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST OR ABOUT
660 MILES...1060 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KAREN COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.2 N...51.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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Will be keeping an eye out on this one... looks like it might be turning towards Florida!

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