Maps


Tropical Discussion #3

WTPZ42 KNHC 190226
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2007

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH A
WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL
QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.5 AND
3.0 RESPECTIVELY ON THE DVORAK SCALE. BASED ON THESE DATA..THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. IVO IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING
THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE MOVING OVER WARM WATER AND WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. THEREAFTER...STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CYCLONE AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

IVO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
MEXICO WESTWARD. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN IN
ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IVO REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. BY THEN...A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHWARD AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW NORTH
AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT...IVO IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND 3
DAYS.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND THE FORECAST
BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. SOME MODELS DO NOT KEEP THE
CYCLONE...OTHERS TURN IVO TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THE GFS MOVE IT
TOWARD THE WEST. HOWEVER..THEY ALL AGREE IN FORECASTING WEAKENING
AFTER 3 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 14.5N 109.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 15.2N 111.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 16.0N 112.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 17.0N 114.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 18.0N 114.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 19.5N 114.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 20.5N 114.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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The Initial Motion Is 295/10. Ivo Remains South Of A Mid-level
Ridge Extending Westward From Northern Mexico. The Large-scale
Models Are In Good Agreement That A Deep-layer Low Currently Moving
Southward Into California Will Drop Far Enough South To Break The
Ridge North Of Ivo...allowing The Storm To Recurve To The Northeast
During The Next 72-96 Hr. However...it Appears The Low Will Not
Come Far Enough South To Accelerate The Storm Northeastward...so
The Motion After Recurvature Is Likely To Be Slow. The New Track
Forecast Is An Update Of The Previous Track For The First 72 Hr...
Then Is Shifted To The Northeast At 96 And 120 Hr In A Compromise
Between The Gfdl...hwrf...ukmet...and Fsu Superensemble Models. It
Should Be Noted That While The Large-scale Models Agree On The
Evolution Of The Steering Patterns...they Do Not Agree On The
Motion. The Gfs And Ecmwf Both Show Ivo Interacting With Another
Disturbance To The West Which Prevents The Storm From Recurving In
Those Models.
Ivo Is Forecast To Remain In A Light Vertical Wind Shear Environment
For The Next 36 Hr Or So...so Continued Strengthening Is Forecast
In Agreement With The Ships Model. Beyond That Time...the
Large-scale Models Disagree On How Much Wind Shear Ivo Will
Encounter. The Ships And Gfdl Models Forecast 20-25 Kt Of
Northwesterly Shear...while The Other Global Models Show Less
Shear. For Now...the Intensity Forecast Will Follow Ships And Call
For Gradual Weakening After 48 Hr. However...there Are Two
Alternatives. First...the New Forecast Track Brings Ivo Over
Warmer Water By 120 Hr...and If The Gfs Is Wrong About The Amount
Of Shear Ivo Could Be Stronger Than Forecast At That Time.
Second...if Ivo Tracks North Of The Forecast Track...it Would
Likely Encounter Both Stronger Shear And Colder Water...which
Should Cause A Faster Weakening.
Forecast Positions And Max Winds

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Max winds?! lol thats me! i dont think i ate beans for lunch though!

Any ideas if this is going to be significant like Dean or Felix?

This looks like to hit CAT 1 hurricane but could peak at Low CAT 2, it doesn't look favorable for major development.

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000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192039
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
2100 UTC WED SEP 19 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 111.9W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 111.9W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 111.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.8N 113.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.9N 114.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.9N 113.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 23.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 111.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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