Tropical Discussion #
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 14.7N 48.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 15.1N 49.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 15.6N 50.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 16.2N 51.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 16.7N 52.9W 35 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 17.8N 56.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 19.0N 58.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 20.5N 60.5W 30 KT

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
WTNT33 KNHC 140227
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST THU SEP 13 2007

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST OR ABOUT 840
MILES...1355 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.7 N...48.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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WTNT43 KNHC 140852
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

LATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0452 UTC AMSU-B
MICROWAVE PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LIES BENEATH
THE LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0/45 KT AND 2.5/35 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CONDUCTING ANOTHER RESEARCH MISSION IS
CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE...I WILL HOLD OFF
INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNTIL A MORE ACCURATE MEASUREMENT
CAN BE TAKEN. SO...INGRID WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A 35 KT TROPICAL
STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE PRIMARY MECHANISM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF
INGRID WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING INGRID...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
HAMPERING INGRID FROM INTENSIFYING FURTHER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE NEAR TERM FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL WEAKENING. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGE AND FSSE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AROUND 300/6. INGRID IS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A WEAK RIDGE POSITIONED TO ITS NORTHEAST
AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO ITS NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
BOTH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND THAT OF INGRID WILL
DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF STEERING THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. SINCE INGRID IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A RELATIVELY WEAK
CYCLONE IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
MAINTAINS A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THAT IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BUT SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Discussion

Attached Thumbnails

 

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000
WTNT33 KNHC 160835
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM AST SUN SEP 16 2007

...INGRID REMAINS DISORGANIZED...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES...530 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...BUT A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...17.0 N...56.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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000
WTNT33 KNHC 170828
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 AM AST MON SEP 17 2007

...INGRID DISSIPATING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
INGRID IS DISSIPATING.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0
WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THE
REMNANTS OF INGRID ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A FEW SQUALLS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...17.5 N...60.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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To answer your long ago asked question - Yes we are heading towards in the latter part of the hurricane season.

It runs between 1st June and 30th November. (Whether nature agrees with that or not is another matter)

2007 Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Hurricane Trackers and Hurricane Information - weather.com - This page has a nice little season countdown feature.

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