Hurricane: Hurricane Gustav August 2008 - Midlands Weather Forum

scotweather · #1 (**Link to Post**) 26-Aug-2008, 19:14

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Hurricane Gustav Intermediate Advisory Number 6a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al072008
200 Pm Edt Tue Aug 26 2008

...gustav Made Landfall On The Southwest Peninsula Of Haiti...

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect From Barahona In The Dominican
Republic Westward To Le Mole St Nicholas Haiti.

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For Cuba...for The Provinces Of
Guantanamo...santiago De Cuba...and Granma. A Hurricane Warning
Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning
Area...generally Within 24 Hours.

A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect For Haiti From Le Mole St
Nicholas To The Northern Haiti/dominican Republic Border.

A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect For The Cuban Provinces Of Las
Tunas And Holguin. A Hurricane Watch Is Also In Effect For Jamaica.
A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible
Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

Interests In Central And Western Cuba And The Cayman Islands Should
Closely Monitor The Progress Of Gustav.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

The Eye Of Hurricane Gustav Made Landfall On The Southwest Peninsula
Of Haiti About 10 Miles...16 Km...west Of Jacmel...shortly After
100 Pm Edt...1700 Utc.

At 200 Pm Edt...1800z...the Center Of Hurricane Gustav Was Located
Just Inland Near Latitude 18.2 North...longitude 72.8 West Or About
40 Miles...60 Km...southwest Of Port Au Prince Haiti And About 190
Miles...310 Km ...southeast Of Guantanamo Cuba.

Gustav Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 10 Mph...16 Km/hr.
A Turn Toward The West-northwest With A Decrease In Forward Speed
Forecast Is Expected Later Today...and A General West-northwestward
Motion Is Expected Wednesday. On This Track This Hurricane Should
Move Across The Southwestern Peninsula Of Haiti Later Today And Near
Or Just South Of Eastern Cuba On Wednesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 90 Mph...150 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Gustav Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson
Scale. Some Weakening Is Likely While Gustav Moves Over Haiti...
However Restrengthening Is Forecast As The Center Approaches
Eastern Cuba On Wednesday.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 25 Miles...35 Km...from
The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70
Miles...110 Km.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 981 Mb...28.97 Inches.

Gustav Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 4 To 8
Inches Over Hispaniola...eastern Cuba...and Jamaica...with Isolated
Maximum Amounts Of Up To 20 Inches Possible. These Rains Will
Likely Produce Life-threatening Flash Floods And Mud Slides.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 2 To 4 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels
Along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves Can Be Expected In
Areas Of Onshore Winds In The Hurricane Warning Area.

Repeating The 200 Pm Edt Position...18.2 N...72.8 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 10 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...90 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...981 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
500 Pm Edt.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/brown

antaletriangle · #2 (**Link to Post**) 27-Aug-2008, 21:55

Gustav Battered Caribbean Islands.

17 deaths on Hispaniola. Winds back to 73 mph tropical storm, but expected to increase over warm Gulf Waters to Cat 3 hurricane, or higher. Gulf oil producers threatened.
“There is nothing in Gustav's path that will hinder development.
There is a strong probability that it will be a Category 3 storm by the time
it enters the Gulf, and it has the potential to strengthen into a Category 4 or 5
storm over the Gulf.” - AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist, John Kocet

5-day-path projection on left shows Gustav could make landfall
near the Texas and Louisiana border west of New Orleans, crushed by
Hurricane Katrina on August 29, 2005. Oil producers are now worried
about their oil platforms, shown in map on right, and oil prices spiked
higher on fears of destruction. Maps © 2008 by AccuWeather.

AccuWeather: “Oil, natural gas and gasoline prices climbed today as traders worried that Tropical Storm Gustav will become a major hurricane (Cat 3 or higher) before reaching the oil production areas in the Gulf of Mexico. Computer models show Gustav heading for the U.S. Gulf Coast, arriving anywhere from western Florida -- already waterlogged from last week's Tropical Storm Fay -- to Louisiana, where cleanup and repair efforts are still ongoing three years after Hurricane Katrina. Katrina killed more than 1,800 people when it slammed into the Gulf Coast on August 29, 2005, flattening towns on the Mississippi coast and flooding portions of New Orleans. In Baton Rouge, Louisiana, authorities warned residents to keep an eye on Gustav and prepare for a major storm.”

Source: Earthfiles.com Headline News

scotweather · #3 (**Link to Post**) 28-Aug-2008, 10:14

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Tropical Storm Gustav Advisory Number 13
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al072008
500 Am Edt Thu Aug 28 2008

...gustav Reforms To The South And Is A Little Stronger...

At 5 Am Edt...0900 Utc...the Tropical Storm Warning For Haiti Has
Been Discontinued.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Cuban Province Of
Granma.

A Hurricane Watch And A Tropical Storm Warning Remain In Effect For
Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect For All Of The Cayman Islands.

Interests In Central And Western Cuba Should Closely Monitor The
Progress Of Gustav.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 500 Am Edt...0900z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Gustav Was
Located Near Latitude 17.8 North...longitude 75.6 West Or About 80
Miles...130 Km...east Of Kingston Jamaica And About 170 Miles...270
Km...south Of Guantanamo Cuba.

Gustav Is Moving Toward The Southwest Near 8 Mph...13 Km/hr. A
Turn Toward The West Is Expected Later Today And To The West-
Northwest On Friday. The Center Of Gustav Is Expected To Pass Very
Close To Jamaica Later Today.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 50 Mph...85 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Strengthening Is Forecast Over The Next 48 Hours And
Gustav Could Regain Hurricane Strength By Friday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 50 Miles...85 Km
From The Center.

The Latest Central Pressure Just Reported By An Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance Plane Was 988 Mb...29.18 Inches.

Gustav Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 2 To 4
Inches Over Southern Cuba...and 6 To 12 Inches Over Haiti...
Jamaica...and The Cayman Islands...with Isolated Maximum Amounts Of
Up To 25 Inches Possible. These Rains Will Likely Produce
Life-threatening Flash Floods And Mud Slides.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 1 To 2 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels
Can Be Expected In Areas Of Onshore Winds In The Tropical Storm
Warning Area.

Repeating The 500 Am Edt Position...17.8 N...75.6 W. Movement
Toward...southwest Near 8 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...50 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...988 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 800 Am Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 1100
Am Edt.

$$
Forecaster Blake/avila

scotweather · #4 (**Link to Post**) 28-Aug-2008, 10:21

Gustav has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm however, it looks like Gustav is on course to effect New Orleans in the next 5 days. May be worth keeping an eye out on this one. I do hope there is no repeat of the New Orleans disaster.

Could be somewhat dodgy as Gustav will most likely increase and become even more organised when it gets into the Gulf's warmer waters.

scotweather · #5 (**Link to Post**) 28-Aug-2008, 10:34

How New Orleans is preparing for Gustav's visit.

Dangerous Gustav still expected to visit Gulf coast next week

by Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune Wednesday August 27, 2008, 4:01 PM

A nearly-stalled Tropical Storm Gustav is now forecast to be just south of the mouth of the Mississippi River by 1 p.m. Monday as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds.
There's a 20 percent chance of tropical storm force winds of 45 mph reaching New Orleans by Monday afternoon, and a 5 percent chance of hurricane force winds reaching the birdfoot delta area of the Mississippi River by then.
The National Weather Center's balloon visualization of the potential error of its forecast track now stretches from Tampa on the southwest coast of Florida to the Texas-Louisiana border and north of Jackson, Miss., which means the storm could reach any of those points by 1 p.m. Monday.
Gustav's nearly two-day infatuation with Haiti seems to be almost over, said Lieut. Cmdr. Dave Roberts, a Navy hurricane specialist assigned to the National Hurricane Center. At 4 p.m. Central time, the storm was still 90 miles southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba, and crawling in a west northwest direction at only 3 mph.
"Based on aircraft reconnaissance data, Gustav is just barely off the northwest tip of the southwestern peninsula of Haiti and could be finally starting to drift toward the northwest," Roberts said. "There's really going to be no real increase in forward speed over the next day or so, so that by Friday or Friday afternoon, it will be approaching southern Cuba."

Dangerous Gustav still expected to visit Gulf coast next week - New Orleans Hurricane Center - NOLA.com

scotweather · #6 (**Link to Post**) 28-Aug-2008, 10:49

West Bank ready to test defenses

by Meghan Gordon, The Times-Picayune Wednesday August 27, 2008, 11:35 PM

The Army Corps of Engineers and levee officials initiated plans Wednesday to test floodgates and patch gaping holes spread across 20 miles of the West Bank's unfinished hurricane barrier in preparation for Gustav.
"What we're looking at is expectation of a hit, " said David Bindewald, outgoing president of the West Bank levee board. "We're gearing up with that in mind."
Although officials are preparing for the worst, Bindewald cautioned that as of Wednesday morning, Gustav remained more than 100 hours from landfall -- a long time in the life of a hurricane. He asked the corps and contractors to take an accounting of any sand, 3,000-pound rock bags and other supplies they might need so the levee board could order the equipment in time to plug weak spots by the weekend.
The West Bank is in the thick of an unprecedented amount of levee and floodwall improvements, but it will continue to have some of the most vulnerable areas in the New Orleans area until the full system is complete.

West Bank ready to test defenses - New Orleans Hurricane Center - NOLA.com

antaletriangle · #7 (**Link to Post**) 28-Aug-2008, 11:43

As it moves into the Gulf of mekiko more pronounced warmer waters could fuel this dramatically esp as it moves into more shallow areas later on-effects on the off shore oil rigs-it's slow movement could also provide a more constant fuelling mechanism!Hope this doesn't occur for the sake of the poorer residents of the U.S.A.

scotweather · #8 (**Link to Post**) 29-Aug-2008, 06:24

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Tropical Storm Gustav Intermediate Advisory Number 17a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al072008
200 Am Edt Fri Aug 29 2008

...center Of Gustav Expected To Move Back Over Water Soon...

Hurricane Warnings Remain In Effect For Jamaica And The Cayman
Islands. A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are
Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.
Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To
Completion.

A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect For Western Cuba...for The
Provinces Of Isla De Juventud...pinar Del Rio...la Habana...and
Ciudad De La Habana. A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane
Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within
36 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Cuban Province Of
Granma.

A Tropical Storm Watch Remain In Effect For The Cuban Province Of
Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm
Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36
Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 200 Am Edt...0600z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Gustav Was
Located On The Southwest Coast Of Jamaica Near Latitude 17.9
North...longitude 77.7 West Or About 60 Miles...95 Km...west Of
Kingston Jamaica And About 255 Miles...415 Km...east-southeast Of
Grand Cayman.

Gustav Is Moving Toward The West Near 8 Mph...13 Km/hr. A Turn
Toward The West-northwest And Northwest Is Forecast During The Next
Couple Of Days. On This Track...the Center Of Gustav Will Leave
Jamaica In The Next Few Hours...move Near Or Over The Cayman
Islands Later Today...and Approach Western Cuba On Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 65 Mph...100
Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. Strengthening Is Forecast During The
Next 24 Hours...and Gustav Is Expected To Become A Hurricane Later
Today Or Tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 45 Miles...75 Km
From The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure From Air Force Reconnaissance
Data Is 993 Mb...29.32 Inches.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 1 To 3 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels
Can Be Expected In Areas Of Onshore Winds In The Hurricane Warning
Area.

Gustav Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 6 To
12 Inches Across Jamaica And The Cayman Islands...with Isolated
Maximum Amounts Of Up To 25 Inches Possible. These Rains Will
Likely Produce Life-threatening Flash Floods And Mud Slides.
Rainfall Accumulations Of 2 To 4 Inches Are Possible Over Southern
Cuba. Rainfall Will Be Diminishing Over Haiti Tonight...with An
Additional 1 To 2 Inches Of Rainfall Possible.

Repeating The 200 Am Edt Position...17.9 N...77.7 W. Movement
Toward...west Near 8 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...65 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...993 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
500 Am Edt.

$$
Forecaster Blake/avila

Dollsworth · #9 (**Link to Post**) 29-Aug-2008, 10:25

Jamaica remains on alert as tropical storm Gustav moves westwards over the south coast during the next 24 hours. Winds are currently around 50 m.p.h. with higher speed gusts. Gustav is expected to regain its hurricane status once it moves away to the west, with wind speeds predicted to increase to over 100 m.p.h.

Torrential rain of between 6 to 12 inches is expected over eastern Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches possible. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. On windward coasts storm surge flooding of 1 to 2 feet above normal tide levels can be expected along with large and battering waves.

The Met Office provides valuable forecast information to humanitarian agencies and the insurance industry, through the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) service. Met Office models predict the paths of tropical storms such as Gustav, giving advanced notice for mitigating action. The probability of heavy rain and strong winds in association with tropical cyclones throughout the world form another crucial part of the TSR service.
The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center is shown below.

Met Office article: Gustav to regain hurricane status

The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to scotweather For This Useful Post:
ATO2 (28-Aug-2008), Dollsworth (26-Aug-2008), Philip Bedford (01-Sep-2008)

The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to antaletriangle For This Useful Post:
ATO2 (28-Aug-2008), Dollsworth (27-Aug-2008)

The Following User Says Thank You to scotweather For This Useful Post:
Dollsworth (28-Aug-2008)

The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to scotweather For This Useful Post:
Dollsworth (28-Aug-2008), Philip Bedford (31-Aug-2008)

The Following User Says Thank You to Dollsworth For This Useful Post:
scotweather (29-Aug-2008)