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Old 29-Aug-2008, 11:00
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Re: Thunderstorm Discussion 30th August -31st August 2008

Afraid it was too cloudy here in Kent this morning to see any sun, though if the forecast is correct I'm hopeful for some evening sun

Saturday, storms will develop across western France. This will be the main contributing event. However, during the evening you may find isolated heavy shower, perhaps thundery, over north Wales/northwest England. This will push into the Irish Sea overnight.

A small surface LOW looks likely over W France during the day, which will develop storms along a trough. These show signs of pushing over the Channel into southern England during the early hours of Sunday morning, although I am concerned about the lack of CAPE. This is likely to mean that at this time the storms are likely to be high-based, meaning a lot of electrical activity but not necessarily much precipitation. Still a line from Weymouth-Bristol and all areas eastwards seems necessary. The storms will work northwards during the morning into central & East Midlands and East Anglia. However there is a big cause for concern as daytime temps climb to 24/25C, CAPE levels will shoot up and we may see some severe storms down the spine of the UK, with moderate hail, CG lightning, gusty winds, torrential rain and perhaps a tornado. These will continue into the evening, pushing into NE England/Yorkshire and perhaps SE Scotland before moving off into the North Sea.
At present the cold front appears to be slightly slower arriving across western UK. There also seems to be a MCS over northeast France which will move into Belgium during the afternoon and the southern North Sea during the evening. Viewers on the east/southeast coasts may see this.
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