I know we shouldn't at this early stage, but it's a bit difficult not to get a tad bit excited at this setup.

As mentioned yesterday, we are still on-course for a thundery breakdown for central and eastern UK as we head through Saturday night and Sunday. Before that, a LOW pressure system to the northwest of Scotland will "squash" the HIGH from the west a little, creating a feed of very warm and humid air from the continent and giving perfect conditions for a Spanish plume. This will allow some afternoon storms to develop over Wales/N England and possibly the Midlands too on Saturday.
The unstable air over Spain itself will cause a small LOW pressure system to form over Northern Spain with an associated trough of thunderstorms from midnight on Saturday.

During the course of Saturday itself, the LOW will move NEwards, crossing the BoB, where as seas are very warm at this time of year, it will "suck" a lot of moisture. This will create some pretty big storms as they move over Northern France during Saturday afternoon and, more especially, evening. The most likely scenario is a large MCS to develop, capable of producing large hail, gusty winds and tornadoes.

This hops over the channel overnight, arriving along the south coast after midnight (I'm still going with Weymouth eastwards). It then looks likely to move northeastwards (I think a line from Weymouth-Hull southwards seems most likely) during the day on Sunday. At the same time a cold front will be approaching from the west, which is likely to cause a "lifting effect" ahead of the front, and resulting with some high rainfall amounts in the east from these storms. Unfortunately it all clears eastwards during the evening and by Monday we're back to cooler and showery conditions.

Ah well fingers crossed it pulls off...

__________________