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brett · #9 (**Link to Post**) 22-May-2008, 20:03

hi all - sounds a fascinating project bj - and good luck with it - but anything that requires other than point and click is way over my head

can i just throw a little spanner in the works - and that is this - variables - and by this i mean local variables - that could seriously compromise the outcome of any analysis - and i will use Kate's flooding scenario as an example if i may

she said "
10mm of rain in 1 hour here in Falkirk usually causes localised flooding but that's JUST Falkirk."

now why is that ?? - topography - block paving - or the council not cleaning the drains out regularly ??

tell you a little story : many many years ago - i made a statement along the lines of " well if we get any flooding up here ( Dartmoor plateaux ) then the rest of the world is in BIG trouble " - an hour later we where called out to flooding of one of the highest pubs on Dartmoor - reason a culvert under the road had become blocked and the pub sat in a slight gully - result 2 foot of flood water in the bars ( oh and it was blowing a hoolie and try stitching down a way wood roof in that lot - BIG FUN !!

now normally if the gully had been clear - it would not have mattered how much runoff or rain came down on the moor in that area and indeed it was several years before we got called there again for flooding -( same reason )

so you can see from this example - that whilst it is possible to say if x happens -( heavy rain ) then y may result ( flooding possible ) - somewhere you have to factor in BUT only if z ( the council did not clean the drains ) AND w ( its autumn and the gullies may be blocked by leaves ) are TRUE

IF - z and /or w are FALSE - then y becomes less probable

well i hope i have that something like right ?? - just trying to understand the enormity of the task you have set yourself - in a local context

but i do like the pine cones and seaweed analogy - as i think some times some forecasts /forecasters tend to baffle with science - when all the average user wants to know is - will it rain - if it does what will happen - and can i blame local flooding on next doors new block paving ??

sorry for the ramble folks - just ignore me - most people do

Brett

The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to brett For This Useful Post:
beteljuice (22-May-2008), Dollsworth (22-May-2008), scotweather (23-May-2008)