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Old 21-May-2008, 01:59
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Arrow WANTED - Modern weather 'saw'

This is an Open Challange to create a decision tree from limited information as is usually available from a basic electronic weather station situated in UK.

Trying to correctly interpret both current conditions and likely forecast, together with any advisories.

Open to everyone at every level, decisions can be as complicated or a basic as you like as long as the reasoning is sound. You can do a small bit or try it all !

PEOPLE OF A NERVOUS DISPOSITION NEED NOT APPLY !
It should be expected that anyones contribution will be expanded / contracted / modified by anyone else as they 'fly' with an idea.


Sort of things wanted:
How much rain to cause local flooding ?
If it's winter AND low (but not freezing ?) temp AND forecast is rain - is that sleet ?
If its May AND evening AND temp <5 AND forecast clear - is that a frost warning for gardeners ?
If Summer AND wind from (direction) AND temp certain value - rain ?
and so on ....

Probably let this 'run' for 4 / 5 weeks, please limit yourselves to the data outlined below - if successful then it could be expanded to include trends / historic data / observational data.

Information available:
'change since last' for almost any event can be made available either as none, rising, falling OR as a numeric value - I am using this as 'eye candy' because the last compared value could be as short as 10 sec. or as great as one hour, dependent upon the ftp frequency set by the user and therefore is unreliable as a 'trend'

Date (could be used for seasonal decisions)
Time (night / day - morning / evening decisions ?)

Current Temperature
* change since last

"Feels Like" temperature (calculated)

Comfort Index (calculated - Verbose description - eg. Uncomfortably Cold)

Windchill

Wind speed (all common units - inc. verbose, eg. Smoke rises vertically)
Wind direction (degrees / SSW / South-Southwest)

Humidity
* change since last

Dew Point

Current Barometer (relative / absolute - hPa / inHg)
5(?) hour barometer trend (as decided by the wx station - eg. falling, steady, rising)
* change since last

Station 'forecast' (clear, rain, cloud) [wx settable as 2 / 3 / 4 hPa change, default 4]

Station 'Storm Warning' [wx settable 3 - 9 hPa, default 5]
(NB. rate of change is not stated, presumed to be per hour unless you know different)

Rain last 24 hours (rolling count every hour, on the hour)
Rain last 60 minutes (rolling count, real time)

Cloud Base Height (m / ft - calculated, Above Ground Level)

Be aware of possible pitfalls !
Eg. rain.
Rain 60m greater than 0, must be raining - FALSE (may have rained 59 minutes ago)
Rain 60m less than last check, must be dry - FALSE (may be raining less than 59 minutes ago)
Rain 60m equals 0, must be dry - LIKELY (may not be enough rain to work the bucket )
Rain 60m greater last check, must be raining - TRUE (but that could be 10s ago - not reliable as a 'trend' because next check will probably be 'no change' unless it's a monsoon)
Rain 60m greater than 0 and 'no change since last check' must be dry - FALSE (may have rained 59 minutes ago the same amount it's raining now)


Is has been rumoured that the beteljuice "is working on something", well the idea is that I will probably stitch the 'group logic' into HeavyWeather - AJAX to give nice 'English' forecasts and / or advisories (some already exist)

NB. This is a Work In Progress 'beta' and is not yet ready for distrubution ! - Nor is it guaranteed to be working when you see it !! (Big thank you to Scotweather for making her data available)

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The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to beteljuice For This Useful Post:
Dollsworth (21-May-2008), scotweather (21-May-2008)
 
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