 Convective Outlook 10th to 11th May 2008
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 10 May 2008 06:00 to Sun 11 May 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 10 May 2008 06:45
Forecaster: DAHL
SYNOPSIS
Upper block pattern persists across Europe ... with feature of main interest being the intensifying cut-off cyclone over the Iberian Peninsula which will make slow eastward progress on Saturday. Another upper cut-off low is present over eastern Europe, which exhibits smaller-scale vort maxima at its periphery, which are expected to affect the Belarus region late on Saturday. At low levels ... weak cyclonic circulation is accompanying the Iberian upper low, maintaining north- and eastward advection of a weak Saharan EML plume into the southern Mediterranean regions. Otherwise, SFC conditions over Europe are rather quiescent.
DISCUSSION
There will be numerous foci for mainly diurnally-driven deep convection over Europe, but shear and thermodynamic fields suggest that organized severe threat will be rather low with this activity.
# # #
__________________
|